A Little Frost On the Pumpkin

According to the NWS, the end of the growing season may occur tonight. They have lowered our forecast overnight low to around the 32 degrees:





DRY AIRAND CLEAR SKY...AS WELL AS DIMINISHING WINDS...WILL ALLOWRADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM TOOCONSERVATIVE IN LIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...SOFORECASTING TEMPS BELOW GFS NUMBERS. THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEENEXTENDED TO FOR ALL SECTIONS...EVEN OUR EXTREME SOUTH COUNTIES.

Look at all that color on the radar!

After the storms pass thru tonight and early tomorrow, the Midsouth is in for a nice cooldown. Looks like we will say "Goodbye" to the 80 degree temps for quite a while.
(Radar courtesy of Weather Underground)

Waiting On Cool Temps? Be Patient

I am certainly ready for some cooler temps but it looks as though we may have to wait a while for the cooler air to make it down to us. Check out the long range forecast at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php



And even that doesn't look promising.........

A Cold Winter in Store ?

Accuweather.com meteorologist Joe Bastardi is predicting a warmer than normal winter for the Eastern half of the nation. The Old Farmer's Almanac is out and is predicting a colder than normal winter. It will be interesting to see if the folks over at the National Weather Service concur. They will release their official Winter Forecast later this month.

What do you think?





http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp

This afternoon could get a little bumpy.....

There is a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon, according to the severe storms forecast:

WITH CONTINUED ASCENT WITHIN RESERVOIR OF WEAK TO MODERATE MUCAPE...EXPECT SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTS MODERATE MLCAPE /ACCORDING TO MODIFIED 12Z LCH SOUNDING/ AND DIMINISHES CINH. APPEARS SETUP WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF SWRN LA/ERN AR ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE RICH GULF MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...DESPITE THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREATS MAY BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...BROAD REGION OF MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS MORE OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING...PERSISTENT INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

Rain Chances Next Week

Latest model runs backing off severe weather possibilities for next week.....but are showing possible heavy rain. After a dry, past few weeks an unsettled weather pattern is setting up for the Midsouth.

Severe Weather Possible Next Week

A vigorous Pacific storm will be making its way across the Rockies this weekend dragging a cold front with it. Would not be surprised to see some T-storms break out across the area early to mid week(next week). We are fast approaching the so-called 2ND Severe Weather season(Oct-Nov-Dec) in Arkansas. Those strong pacific storms are usually a precursor to severe weather outbreaks in the Natural State.