Unsettled Weather this Week for the Midsouth

A period of unsettled weather is in store for the Midsouth this week.

We are under a slight risk for severe weather the next couple of days.

Interesting Article concerning Global COOLING?

There is a very informative article out there by Bill Steffen that really debunks the global warming myth. A good read indeed!

A Dry Week Ahead

"Where's all that heavy rain?" was a question I was asked more than once on Saturday. Although some parts of Arkansas saw quite a bit of rain, other areas did not receive more than a quarter of an inch during the daylight hours.

If you are glad that we didn't get what the NWS had forecasted, you can thank the MCS (mesoscale convective system) that formed and persisted along the Gulf Coast Saturday. It "cut off" the rich flow of moisture from the Gulf into the Natural State.

While there is still the possibility of heavy rain tonight, the 2" to 4" expected earlier this week looks questionable.

If your were hoping for dry and warmer weather this upcoming week you will not be disappointed. High temps by the end of the work week will be in the 80's.

The above photo is of a parhelion or a sun dog, taken last month in Winchester Arkansas.

The Cleanup Begins

The Midsouth was walloped last evening by numerous severe storms, some of which turned tornadic. The storm reports page from yesterday is lit up like a Christmas tree. Many reports of high winds, hail and also a few tornadoes . Even in my own neck of the woods, there are numerous trees uprooted and others "topped".

Mena (Polk County) seems to have been the hardest hit area (3 fatalities).

One wonders how bad it could have been if this system would have moved through during the early evening hours.
The Governor has already declared 3 counties (Polk, Howard and Sevier) as disaster areas, making them available for state relief funds.

Storms possible later today and tonight

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the possibility of severe storms later today and tonight for many areas of the Midsouth as a storm system approaches . Only extreme SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma, extreme SW Missouri and the western parts of Arkansas are under a moderate risk for severe storms.
Brisk southerly winds are bringing in the moisture, with dew points approaching 60 already this morning.
Hopefully for the SE Arkansas area, the cold front will move thru after dark, inhibiting some of the dynamics needed for widespread severe weather-although some "hailers" and high winds can't be ruled out.

A "Righteous" Wind

A persistent breeze Monday night kept temperatures in many places across the Midsouth from falling below freezing and saved many gardeners and farmers from devastating losses. Lows in the Drew County area ranged from 32 to 34 degrees.

Our eyes turn westward now, as another storm system moves ashore and begins to strengthen. Temperatures are expected to rebound quickly back up to normal levels the next few days.

As usual, the timing of the approaching system will determine-to some degree- whether or not we have slight or moderate potential for severe weather.

Our featured photo today is a scenic taken on Highway 8 in rural Bradley County (AR).

Early Spring Cold Snap On the Way/ Spaceweather

The NWS (National Weather Service) has issued a Freeze Watch for many areas of the Midsouth for Sunday and Monday night.
Statement from NWS:



A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PLANTS AND SENSITIVE
VEGETATION FROM SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES.


Also, below is an article from Spaceweather.com-an update on the recent sunspot(less) activity. Just how much does sunspot activity affect weather here on Earth?

Space Weather News for April 2, 2009
http://spaceweather.com

SPOTLESS SUNS: Yesterday, NASA announced that the sun has plunged into the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Sunspots have all but vanished and consequently the sun has become very quiet. In 2008, the sun had no spots 73% of the time, a 95-year low. In 2009, sunspots are even more scarce, with the "spotless rate" jumping to 87%. We are currently experiencing a stretch of 25 continuous days uninterrupted by sunspots--and there's no end in sight.

This is a big event, but it is not unprecedented. Similarly deep solar minima were common in the late-19th and early-20th centuries, and each time the sun recovered with a fairly robust solar maximum. That's probably what will happen in the present case, although no one can say for sure. This is the first deep solar minimum of the Space Age, and the first one we have been able to observe using modern technology. Is it like others of the past? Or does this solar minimum have its own unique characteristics that we will discover for the first time as the cycle unfolds? These questions are at the cutting edge of solar physics.

You can monitor the progress of solar minimum with a new "Spotless Days Counter" on spaceweather.com. Instead of counting sunspots, we're counting no sunspots. Daily updated totals tell you how many spotless days there have been in a row, in this year, and in the entire solar cycle. Comparisons to historical benchmarks put it all in perspective. Visit http://spaceweather.com for data.

Prayer Answered

Although there were 11 reports of tornadoes yesterday across the southern part of the country , the National Weather Service, along with residents of this part of the nation are breathing a sigh of relief today on what could have been.  It was forecast to be a bad day with possible "long-tracked tornadoes but the super outbreak never materialized.  All the ingredients needed  for a poisonous recipe of death and destruction were on the table-but not in the correct amounts. But the antidote was also supplied .

 

And prayer.

T STORM WARNING

THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DREW CO AR

 

 

 

The Race is On

As the storm system kicks out of the Panhandle area tonight, it is looking very similar to the one last Friday in which we will have more wind energy (helicity) and too little instability (CAPE) to produce a widespread severe weather outbreak here in Arkansas. We still cannot let our guard down though. We are still under a slight risk for severe storms.

But the folks further to the east in Dixie Alley will not fair as well. The storms will arrive there at the peak of daytime heating and they may continue well into the evening.

Let's pray for rain and storms(non-severe of course) along the Gulf to impede the flow of moisture into the Midsouth and to keep the severe weather to a minimum.

A Chilly Start to a Beautiful Day

Temperatures bottomed out in the low to mid 30's this morning as the high pressure was situated right over SE Arkansas .  El Dorado was the cool spot in our neck of the woods- they got down to 33 degrees.  I even seen some scattered frost on the drive in to work.

 

After a beautiful day today, the focus then turns to the approaching storm system.  Even though there is a risk of severe weather tomorrow, questions remain.  Will the storm track further to the north as some of the models forecast-which would enhance our chances of severe weather, or will it take a more southerly track, giving us chances of mostly hail-producers?  Will the atmosphere be robbed of it's instability by any showers on thundershowers that pop up before the main system slides thru, thereby decreasing our chances of severe storms or will atmosphere have a chance to "ripen up"? 

 

So far this year we have been blessed by a cool spring.  And the first part of April is forecast to be cooler than normal-whatever normal is !