Hints to the Upcoming Winter

As the 2009-2010 winter draws closer, more Meteorologists are falling in line with Joe Bastardi, Chief Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com and his prediction that this winter will be colder than average for a good portion of the country-colder than we have seen in several years.

 

This year's "under performing" El Nino is one of the reason's for their prediction.  El Nino, or the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters, is so far this year,  been relatively mild, and not what the National Weather Service had predicted earlier this year.  It was expected to intensify by now but is showing no signs of strengthening.   A weak El Nino is favorable for cold, snowy conditions along the eastern seaboard, stretching back into the Appalachians.

 

Another factor that may play a part in this prediction is the absence of Solar activity or sunspots.  The Sun has been in the midst of a solar minimum, or absence of sunspot activity, not seen in nearly a 100 years.  Some scientists correlate the absence of solar activity with cooler than normal temperatures-which is what many of us in the U.S. have indeed experienced this year.

 

For those snowbirds living in the South,  this upcoming winter may be your kind of winter!

Moisture and Misery

 

It appears that today will be "the day" the Midsouth and the Seark (SE AR) receives the heaviest of the rainfall (at least we hope so) associated with this persistent, cut-off low that is currently centered in Northern Louisiana .  Over the last few hours, Monroe has received over 5 inches of rain and it is still coming down.  In the Midsouth, the Memphis areas has been inundated with flooding rains as well.  All of that is moving north to northwest, into the Seark and into the Memphis area.  Some places may get up to 4 inches of additional rain in the next 36 hours, especially if you happen to be in an location that gets a thunderstorm embedded with a band of precipitation as it moves through. We may end up getting close to a foot of rain by the time it is all over.

 

 

This is turning out to be our "tropical system"  for this year, folks.  Rarely do we not have at least one during the year that effects us.   

 

 

There is still much uncertainty as to when this system "gets out of here".    Some models having it hanging around until next week-basically fizzling out until the upper level trof moves a front through the area.

 

Keep you boat and your rubber boots handy!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Snail-of-a-Storm Slowly Inching This Way

After receiving little or no rain for most of the year, the prayers of most South Texans have been answered.
Some areas of Texas have received nearly a year's worth of rain this week. The slow storm system is creeping north and is expected to continue a north to northeast path, but may not move out until late next week.

Until then the Midsouth can expect to be under the threat of rain showers along with an isolated thunderstorm or two mixed in-heavy rain may occur later in the weekend and into mid-week as the storm system awaits support in the upper levels to move it along.

Although little or no rain has fallen over many parts of the Midsouth, it would not be surprising to see some areas to receive 1 to 3 inches (or more) of rain before it's all said and done. The Flood Watch for parts of the Arklatex region may have to be expanded later to cover parts north and east.

Temperatures will not fluctuate much do to dense cloud cover and precipitation, ranging from the upper 60's to the lower 80's for the next few days.

Afternoon Update...

 

Looking more and more like we are in for some heavy rains this weekend-especially those in the SEARK (that is Southeast Arkansas if you are wondering).   Some models show upper-level low mentioned in previous blog, getting cut-off from upper level jet, and parking itself right over the SEARK.  Heavier rains(2 + inches) may occur on Saturday / Saturday night time period, with extended rain chances thru Tuesday-at least.

 

Looking like the summer of 2009 will end on a rather wet note- not exactly what the farmers want to see take place.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rain Makes a Return - And Stays a While

A weak cold front moved into the Midsouth overnight and is nearly stationary over the AR/LA border region.  Scattered showers and thundershowers occurred last night along the front.  As a convective complex in Northern Arkansas moves to the southeast and interacts with the frontal boundary today, look for showers and thunderstorms to increase, possibly dumping some heavy rain on the Midsouth. 

 

 

This unstable weather pattern will probably continue right on thru the weekend, due to a surface low developing in the eastern TX gulf coast ahead of a strengthening low pressure system over the Red River Valley .  As it strengthens, it will lift into southern Arkansas over the weekend producing  more showers and thunderstorms.  Again, heavy rains are possible with this developing system.

 

 

Unsettled weather is anticipated through the first part of next week until the next cold front clears the area and brings an end to the rain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Cap Tops Off Labor Day Weekend

Monticello, AR- After a very mild night in which the mercury had trouble falling into the lower to mid 70's, temperatures on Monday, Labor Day 2009 managed to climb again into the 90's on the back of partly to mostly sunny skies.

Although some parts of the Midsouth received an appreciable amount of precip when it did rain, many regions south of the I-30 corridor have received little or no rainfall, thanks to a "cap" situated over the Midsouth trailing back into the Arklatex area. A "cap" or "lid" is nothing more than a layer of warm air aloft, several thousand feet up, which inhibits thunderstorm development, even in the presence of very unstable air(which we do NOT have).

Even with the cap in place most of the upcoming week, and isolated thundershower still cannot be ruled out.

Later in the week a cold front will approach the Midsouth and could again increase our precipitation chances.

Until then, enjoy the vestige air of summer for a little longer!

Summer Sets; The "Official" End of Summer is Here

Since Labor Day Weekend marks the official end of Summer, with family reunions, harvest time, college football (GO HOGS), and families trying to squeeze in that last getaway of the year, it's only fitting that last official summer weekend end on a possibly rainy note. After the two past weekends though- we cannot complain!

Moisture is steadily returning to the Midsouth as our high pressure moves off to the east and the semi-stationary cold front dies and interacts with upper level impulses moving downstream in the northwesterly upper-level jet . As these impulses come down the pike, look for rain and thunderstorms to break out intermittently throughout the Labor Day weekend. Although no severe weather is expected, one cannot rule out scattered heavy rain amounts.

Temperatures will remain slightly below the norm for early September standards. By late next week, temps will edge back up to normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80's.