'Heads Up' This Afternoon and Evening

Wouldn't you know it? On a day where spotter activation will probably be required in SE Arkansas, and I am not there-I am in central Arkansas, visiting with family on spring break.



Regardless of where I am, I will try to convey the importance of keeping abreast of the weather for at least the next 18 or so hours. The "moderate risk" area has expanded and still includes much of southern AR, eastern TX, northern and central LA, and south central MS. The severe weather is also moving in later and could go well into the evening. Here is the statement from the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA

CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

INTENSE SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT SPREADING QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELDS AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO OVERSPREAD A LARGE AREA OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG LIFTING OF THE AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL INTENSE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING AS THIS ACTIVITY RACES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.