Unsettled Weather Thru Saturday

Although we received over an inch of rain overnight, we were spared any severe weather.

After a cloudy morning our rain chances increase this afternoon into night as another disturbance moves through the area. A strong storm or two can not be ruled out either. The focus then shifts to the severe weather potential for the Friday/Friday night timeline as noted by the Day 2 Storm Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FRI MORNING BOTH WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND N OF WARM FRONT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ALONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND WHETHER ANY WEAKER IMPULSES WILL PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENT. HOWEVER...SHOULD A WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE 25/00Z GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOP /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT FRI AND FRI NIGHT.


A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INTRODUCED ATTM DUE TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...AN UPGRADE TO AT LEAST MODERATE RISK WILL BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.



The SPC still only has us at a "slight risk" though. They are very cautious about forecasting "moderate" or "high risk" . I remember last May when the Stuttgart tornado occurred, it was a "moderate " risk day and back in February of 2007 when The Dumas tornado hit it was a "moderate" risk , two to three days out.

The greater risk may be to our east though. Later model runs will give more info on how things unfold.