A line of Thundershowers continues moving through, dropping lots of "liquid sunshine" on the Midsouth this morning, preceding the weak cold front that is splitting the state.
It is already clear in NW Arkansas so hopefully the clearing line will move swiftly to the east and we will experience the reeaaaall thing later this afternoon.
Yesterday's high was 71 and our overnight low was 60.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Sunday, March 29, 2009
The Blessings of a Small C.A.P.E.
If you awoke Saturday morning and wondered why you were able to sleep without being disturbed or awaken by severe storms in the night, count it a blessing.
Folks to the south and to the east of us were not so lucky. Perhaps you are wondering though-why all the 'hype' then about the 'potential' for severe weather? Well, the 'players' were there, but just not on the field at the same time.
The warm front that was expected to move back north into the state and supply us with a warm, humid air mass stayed mostly to the south of us. We lacked the C.A.P.E. (short for Convective Available Potential Energy) or instability needed for an outbreak in storms. The rotating wind energy, or Helicity was high though. If you have high Helicity and not-so-high CAPE, the storms can't get going enough before they are torn apart by the winds.
Here in Arkansas we usually have plenty CAPE-but not Friday. Being in LR Friday, I really couldn't get "excited" about the weather too much because it was not really warm or humid feeling up there. I checked the dew point in KLLQ (Monticello) and KLZK (LR) and there was not that vast a difference in the two points. Perhaps that should have been a clue .....
I am thankful for a small CAPE !
Folks to the south and to the east of us were not so lucky. Perhaps you are wondering though-why all the 'hype' then about the 'potential' for severe weather? Well, the 'players' were there, but just not on the field at the same time.
The warm front that was expected to move back north into the state and supply us with a warm, humid air mass stayed mostly to the south of us. We lacked the C.A.P.E. (short for Convective Available Potential Energy) or instability needed for an outbreak in storms. The rotating wind energy, or Helicity was high though. If you have high Helicity and not-so-high CAPE, the storms can't get going enough before they are torn apart by the winds.
Here in Arkansas we usually have plenty CAPE-but not Friday. Being in LR Friday, I really couldn't get "excited" about the weather too much because it was not really warm or humid feeling up there. I checked the dew point in KLLQ (Monticello) and KLZK (LR) and there was not that vast a difference in the two points. Perhaps that should have been a clue .....
I am thankful for a small CAPE !
Friday, March 27, 2009
'Heads Up' This Afternoon and Evening
Wouldn't you know it? On a day where spotter activation will probably be required in SE Arkansas, and I am not there-I am in central Arkansas, visiting with family on spring break.
Regardless of where I am, I will try to convey the importance of keeping abreast of the weather for at least the next 18 or so hours. The "moderate risk" area has expanded and still includes much of southern AR, eastern TX, northern and central LA, and south central MS. The severe weather is also moving in later and could go well into the evening. Here is the statement from the National Weather Service:
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
INTENSE SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT SPREADING QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELDS AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO OVERSPREAD A LARGE AREA OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG LIFTING OF THE AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL INTENSE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING AS THIS ACTIVITY RACES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
Regardless of where I am, I will try to convey the importance of keeping abreast of the weather for at least the next 18 or so hours. The "moderate risk" area has expanded and still includes much of southern AR, eastern TX, northern and central LA, and south central MS. The severe weather is also moving in later and could go well into the evening. Here is the statement from the National Weather Service:
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
INTENSE SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT SPREADING QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELDS AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO OVERSPREAD A LARGE AREA OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG LIFTING OF THE AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL INTENSE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING AS THIS ACTIVITY RACES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Moderate Risk for Severe Storms on Friday
Portions of the Midsouth are under a 'Moderate Risk' for severe storms on Friday as the main upper level system drags a cold front through the area.
Below is portion of the statement from the Storm Prediction Center:
OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE SECONDARY CYCLONE DURING THE MID/ LATE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL YIELD ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA/WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE BY THE 28/03-06Z TIME FRAME.
RAPID NOCTURNAL WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...AS STRONG UPPER FORCING...AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. AND...SEVERAL LINES/CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
Please stay tuned to your local weather or listen to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest weather advisories.
Below is portion of the statement from the Storm Prediction Center:
OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE SECONDARY CYCLONE DURING THE MID/ LATE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL YIELD ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA/WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE BY THE 28/03-06Z TIME FRAME.
RAPID NOCTURNAL WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...AS STRONG UPPER FORCING...AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. AND...SEVERAL LINES/CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
Please stay tuned to your local weather or listen to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest weather advisories.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Unsettled Weather Thru Saturday
Although we received over an inch of rain overnight, we were spared any severe weather.
After a cloudy morning our rain chances increase this afternoon into night as another disturbance moves through the area. A strong storm or two can not be ruled out either. The focus then shifts to the severe weather potential for the Friday/Friday night timeline as noted by the Day 2 Storm Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FRI MORNING BOTH WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND N OF WARM FRONT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ALONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND WHETHER ANY WEAKER IMPULSES WILL PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENT. HOWEVER...SHOULD A WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE 25/00Z GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOP /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INTRODUCED ATTM DUE TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...AN UPGRADE TO AT LEAST MODERATE RISK WILL BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
The SPC still only has us at a "slight risk" though. They are very cautious about forecasting "moderate" or "high risk" . I remember last May when the Stuttgart tornado occurred, it was a "moderate " risk day and back in February of 2007 when The Dumas tornado hit it was a "moderate" risk , two to three days out.
The greater risk may be to our east though. Later model runs will give more info on how things unfold.
After a cloudy morning our rain chances increase this afternoon into night as another disturbance moves through the area. A strong storm or two can not be ruled out either. The focus then shifts to the severe weather potential for the Friday/Friday night timeline as noted by the Day 2 Storm Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FRI MORNING BOTH WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND N OF WARM FRONT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ALONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND WHETHER ANY WEAKER IMPULSES WILL PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENT. HOWEVER...SHOULD A WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE 25/00Z GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOP /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INTRODUCED ATTM DUE TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...AN UPGRADE TO AT LEAST MODERATE RISK WILL BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
The SPC still only has us at a "slight risk" though. They are very cautious about forecasting "moderate" or "high risk" . I remember last May when the Stuttgart tornado occurred, it was a "moderate " risk day and back in February of 2007 when The Dumas tornado hit it was a "moderate" risk , two to three days out.
The greater risk may be to our east though. Later model runs will give more info on how things unfold.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Severe Threat Lessening This Evening- Hopefully
I am going to stick my neck out and say that the severe weather threat this afternoon is lessening somewhat-unless we have some backbuilding to take place. It has been overcast here all day and not much convection taking place.
Severe Weather Threat Friday
Although there is a chance of severe weather today and tonight, a more significant threat looks to be shaping up for Friday/Friday night. Hopefully this will not pan out.
Welcome to Spring in the Midsouth !
Welcome to Spring in the Midsouth !
Slight Risk of Severe Storms
As advertised, the Storm Prediction Center has given the Midsouth a slight risk for Severe Storms for today, the main threat being large hail and damaging winds. Keep abreast of the latest weather info by listening to NOAA weather radio or tuning in to your local radio or T.V. station.
We reached a high of 76 degrees in the Monticello area on Monday.
We reached a high of 76 degrees in the Monticello area on Monday.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Two Rounds of "Stormy" Weather This Week
It looks as if the Midsouth could be hammered by not just one round-but by 2 rounds of potential severe weather this week. Round one moves in during the Tuesday/Tuesday night time frame and the next one in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Heavy rains are also a possibility.
Be sure to check your local weather routinely throughout the week for updates.
Drop by the Midsouth Weather Buzz for your daily weather summary and the latest weather events.
Be sure to check your local weather routinely throughout the week for updates.
Drop by the Midsouth Weather Buzz for your daily weather summary and the latest weather events.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Is That Spring On My Windshield ?
We know Spring is upon us when we have to use the wipers to clear the pollen away. Just a few more days officially before Spring arrives. I can't wait to see the sun Tuesday . We may have to wait until around lunch though. We may have to wait for the sun to burn off the fog.
I shot a interesting photo back on March 8, coming back from My wife's parents. What do you think it is ? The NWS could not confirm or deny what cloud formation this was.......They said with just one photo they could not determine what formation to call this. I think it was a wall cloud.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Winter's Last Blast ?
If you were looking for a reminder that it was still winter, look no further than to the Midsouth forecast for the next few days.
A late season cold front passed through the area early Wednesday morning and has brought with it some very chilly air-for March standards, and with it some very cold liquid precipitation. Forecast lows in the mid to upper 30's and highs in the 40's for the rest of the work week.
If Puxatawney Phil was correct, this should be "curtain call" time for Ol' Man Winter !
The high today, which was really reached after midnight before the cold front passed, was 71 and our low for today is our current temperature, 42 degrees.
A late season cold front passed through the area early Wednesday morning and has brought with it some very chilly air-for March standards, and with it some very cold liquid precipitation. Forecast lows in the mid to upper 30's and highs in the 40's for the rest of the work week.
If Puxatawney Phil was correct, this should be "curtain call" time for Ol' Man Winter !
The high today, which was really reached after midnight before the cold front passed, was 71 and our low for today is our current temperature, 42 degrees.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
The Long, Winding Road to Spring
Due to a cold front that will go stationary across the Midsouth, we will be dealing with an extended period of unsettled weather. Look for mild weather with periods of showers and isolated storms through the middle of next week.
Yesterday's high temp was 80 and the overnight low last night was 55.
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